CapIQ
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-22.
FY28 normalized EPS estimates nearly halved over 180 days while revenue was trimmed just ~3%
180 days ago FY28 normalized EPS consensus sat near $25; it now reads under $13. The recent 30- and 90-day drift is modestly upward on both years, hinting the cuts have found a floor.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $16.34 | $8.54 | $9.26 | $9.29 | +8.8% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $25.09 | $12.51 | $12.34 | $12.93 | +3.4% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $50.37bn | $46.67bn | $47.25bn | $47.52bn | +1.8% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $52.12bn | $49.16bn | $49.54bn | $50.43bn | +2.6% |
Beat / miss record
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 1 consecutive miss; EPS (normalized): 1 consecutive beat.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $10.89bn | $10.80bn | -0.8% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $1.91 | $2.35 | +23.0% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $10.90bn | $11.38bn | +4.3% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.33 | -$2.75 | -921.5% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $10.98bn | $11.48bn | +4.5% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $3.89 | $1.84 | -52.7% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $10.94bn | $11.43bn | +4.4% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $5.53 | $5.48 | -0.9% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $10.81bn | $11.15bn | +3.1% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $5.96 | $6.08 | +2.1% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $10.32bn | $10.50bn | +1.7% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $5.88 | $5.05 | -14.2% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $9.91bn | $10.34bn | +4.3% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $5.94 | $6.01 | +1.1% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | $9.75bn | $9.88bn | +1.3% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $5.68 | $5.86 | +3.2% | Beat |
Forward estimates
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $44.28bn | $47.52bn | $50.43bn | $57.56bn | -2.5% | 15 | $42.25bn / $45.76bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $5.16 | $9.29 | $12.93 | $20.30 | -53.2% | 19 | $4.36 / $5.60 |
| Gross margin | 12.4% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 13.3% | -0.6pt | — | — |
Analysts split nearly four-to-one on FY27 normalized EPS despite full coverage
FY27 normalized EPS spans $3.50 to $13.50 across 19 analysts — wide coverage, little agreement on how fast margins recover. FY28 EPS and FY28 revenue carry similar spreads.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027E | $9.29 | $3.50–$13.50 | 107.6% | 19 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | $12.93 | $9.65–$16.70 | 54.5% | 13 |
| Revenue | FY2028E | $50.43bn | $46.50bn–$55.41bn | 17.7% | 10 |
Street snapshot
Fifteen of nineteen analysts rate Molina a hold against just three buys; the $129–$286 target range (mean ~$211) mirrors the split in the forward estimates.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 3, Outperform 0, Hold 15, Underperform 1, Sell 0 | 19 |
| Consensus score | 2.74 | 19 |
| Target price | mean $210.8; median $209.0; high $286.0; low $129.0 | 17 |
FY2029 rests on a handful of analysts — EBITDA on one
FY2029 revenue, normalized EPS and GAAP net income each rest on one to three analysts, and FY2029 EBITDA on a single model. Treat the outer-year tape as indicative, not consensus.